City investment advisors Gesham Down Capital Partners (www.greshamdown.com) calculate that there is more than £6.5 billion of commercial property for sale across Central London: around £5 billion in the City and £1.56 billion in the West End.
Gresham Down predict markets polarising between equity and debt investors, with overseas investors - predominantly equity investors, who currently represent almost half of buyers in London, dominating the market. They estimate banks are trending towards selling or encouraging their borrower clients to sell and this will accelerate "with further stock being added from owners looking to take profit on purchases made within the past 2 years and from maturing loans within CMBS portfolios". The number of active lending banks has fallen from 25 to no more than 10-15.
Gresham estimates that there are currently £1.43 billion of investments under offer in the City and £1.08 billion in the West End. Turnover for the year stands at £4.17 billion for the City and £3.33 billion for the West End, an increase of approximately one third compared to 2010.
Equity buyers are recommended to focus on sales from buyers who have to sell, whilst vendors are being told to focus on equity, rather than debt-based buyers.
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